I. THE REDESIGN OF THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY
Chair: ALBERT BIDERMAN, Bureau of Social Science Research
Organizer: STEPHEN FIENBERG, Carnegie-Mellon University
Measuring Victimization: NCS Questionnaire
and Sample Redesign Issues - ROGERT M. GROVES, JAMES M. LEPKOWSKI, PETER
V. MILLER, University of Michigan ............... 1
Discussion - ALBERT J. REISS, Jr., Yale
University ............... 11
Estimation in Survey-Sampling: Robustness and
Optimality - V.P. GODAMBE, University of Waterloo ............... 14
Balanced Samples and Robust Bayesian Inference
in Finite Population Sampling - RICHARD M. ROYALL, Johns Hopkins University;
DANY PEEFFERMANN, Hebrew University ............... 16
Discussion - M.E. THOMPSON, University
of Waterloo ............... 22
Established Criteria and Selected Methods for
Evaluating Crop Yield Models in the AgRISTARS Program - WENDELL W. WILSON,
JEANNE L. SEBAUGH, Departaent of Agriculture ............... 24
Evaluation of Crop/Weather Yield Models: A
Developer's Viewpoint - ARLIN M. FEYERHERM, Kansas State University ...............
32
Analysis of Simulation Models by Response Surface
Techniques - F.D. BAKER, Department of Agriculture; R.E. BARCHANN, University
of Georgia ............... 34
Discussion - WAYNE A. FULLER, Iowa State
University ............... 40
A Review of the Gallup Pre-Election Methodology
in 1980 - ANDREW KOHUT, The Gallup Organization ............... 41
The 1980 Pre-Election Polls: A Review of Disparate
Methods and Results - WARREN J. MITOFSKY, CBS News ............... 47
Discussion - MORRIS H. HANSEN, Westat,
Inc. ............... 53
A New Cost Model for Optimum Allocation in
Two-Stage Sampling - WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK, OPHELIA M. MENDOZA, University
of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; DAVID V. BUDESCU, Research Triangle Institute
............... 55
A Constructive Solution for Two-Dimensional
Controlled Selection Problems - LAWRENCE R. ERNST, Bureau of the Census
............... 61
Workload Bias: A Case for Employing Randomization
in the Scheduling of Field Assignments - DOUGLAS J. DRUMMOND, Research
Triangle Institute ............... 65
A Summary of Observations Concerning the Information
in the Spectral-Temporal-Ancillary Data Available for Estimeting Ground Cover
Crop Proportions - CHARLES R. PERRY, Jr., Department of Agriculture ...............
71
Comparison of Vegetation Indices Based on Satellite-Acquired
Spectral Data - LYLE F. LAUTENSCHLAGER, CHARLES R. PERRY, Jr., Department
of Agriculture ............... 77
Discussion - C.H. PROCTOR, North Carolina
State University ............... 83
The Pilot Testing of Alternative Administrative
Procedures and Survey Instruments - IRA SHESKIN, University of Miami;
PETER STOPHER, Schimpeler, Corradino Associates ............... 85
Telephone Collection in an Establishment Survey
of Job Openings - STUART SCOTT, Bureau of Labor Statistics; MARY YURACHEK,
Occupational Safety and Health Administration ............... 91
Applied Survey Research in a Political Environment
- LORETTA L. HEERY, University of Pennsylvania; JILL L. AUERBACH, JAMES E.
PRATHER, Georgia State University ............... 97
Using Reputational Sampling to Identify Residential
Clusters of Minorities Dispersed in a Large Urban Region: Hispanics in Atlanta,
Georgia - ROB E. SNOW, JOHN D. HUTCHESON, Jr., JAMES E. PRATHER, Georgia
State University ............... 101
An Effective Sample Design for Reaching Minority
Populations - ROLF M. WULFSBERG, DANIEL E. HAGAN, Chilton Research Services
............... 107
Updating Census Data for a Statewide Area Probability
Sample of Housing Units - DONNA BROGAN, CAROLYN MILES, Emory University
............... 113
Reselection of an Area Sample for the Retail
and Service Surveys - CARY T. ISAKI, CARL A. KONSCHNIK, NASH J. MONSOUR,
Bureau of the Census ............... 116
The 1982 Survey of Income and Program Participation
- DANIEL KASPRZYK, CHARLES A. LININGER, Social Security Administration
............... 122
An Evaluation of Statistical Matching
- WILLARD L. RODGERS, EDWARD B. DeVOL, University of Michigan ...............
128
Small Area Estimation Prospects for the Survey
of Income and Program Participation - STEVEN G. HEERINGA, University of
Michigan ............... 133
Discussion - GARY M. SHAPIRO, Bureau of
the Census ............... 139
Effects of Imputation on Regression Coefficients
- ROBERT SANTOS, University of Michigan ............... 140
Two Efficient Random Imputation Procedures
- GRAHAM KALTON, LESLIE KISH, University of Michigan ............... 146
Discussion - RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, Datametrics
Research, Inc. ............... 152
An Industry Study of Coder Variability
- MARTIN COLLINS, SCPR Survey Methods Centre and City University Business
School ............... 154
1980 Census Weighting and Variance Estimation
Studies, Design and Methodology - HENRY F. WOLTMAN, SUSAN M. MISKURA,
JOHN H. THOMPSON, PETER A. BOUNPANE, Bureau of the Census ...............
164
Empirical Results from the 1980 Census Sample
Estimation Study - JAY KIM, JOHN H. THOMPSON, HENRY F. WOLTMAN, Bureau
of the Census; STEPHEN M. VAJS, United States Coast Guard ...............
170
1980 Census Variance Estimation Procedure
- MILTON C. FAN, HENRY F. WOLTMAN, SUSAN M. MISKURA, JOHN H. THOMPSON, Bureau
of the Census ............... 176
Convergence Properties of the Iterative 1980
Census Estimator - JOHN H. THOMPSON, Bureau of the Census ...............
182
Energy-Data Validation: An Overview and Some
Concepts - A. S. LOEBL, S. CANTOR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ...............
186
Maximal Posterior Probability Error Localization
- GUNAR E. LIEPINS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; DAVID J. PACK, Union Carbide
Corporation ............... 192
Discussion - TOMMY WRIGHT, Union Carbide
Corporation ............... 196
Projecting Variances for Two Methods of Estimating
Weed Abundances - C.H. PROCTOR, North Carolina State University ...............
198
Accuracy of Difference Method for Approximating
Sampling Errors for Proportion Estimates from a Complex Sample - IRIS
M. SHIMIZU, National Center for Health Statistics ............... 204
Models for Estimation of Sampling Errors -
P.D. GHANGURDE, Statistics Canada ............... 209
Discussion - DAVID D. CHAPMAN, Bureau of
the Census ............... 213
General Overview of Research in Redesign of
the Census Bureau's Demographic Surveys - R. MAURICE KNICELEY, LEONARD
R. BAER, Bureau of the Census ............... 214
Effects of the Unavailability of Building Permit
Information on the Bureau of the Census' Demographic Surveys - FLORENCE
H. ABRAMSON, STEPHEN HEACOCK, DONNA KOSTANICH, Bureau of the Census ...............
220
Problems Associated with Using Building Permits
as a Frame of Post-Census Construction: Permit Lag and ED Identification -
RONALD STATT, E. ANN VACCA, CHARLES WOLTERS, ROSA HERNANDEZ, Bureau of the
Census ............... 226
Results from the Methods Development Survey
(Phase I) - ANTHONY M. ROMAN, Bureau of the Census ............... 232
Recall Biases for Different Ference Periods
in the National Crime Survey - JOHN M. BUSHERY, Bureau of the Census ...............
238
Research Plans for the Redesign of the Canadian
Labour Force Survey - M.P. SINGE, J.D. DREW, Statistics Canada ...............
244
Discussion - RICHARD PLATEK, Statistics
Canada ............... 250
A Method for Determining and Reducing Nonresponse
Bias - PETER STOPHER, Schimpeler, Corradino Associates; IRA SHESKIN, University
of Miami ............... 252
The Effects of Monetary Payments on Survey
Responses: Experimental Evidence from a Longitudinal Study of Economically
Disadvantaged Youths - STUART H. KERACHSKY, CHARLES D. MALLAR, Mathematica
Policy Research ............... 258
Preliminary Results of 1980 Decennial Census
Telephone Followup Nonresponse Experiment - PAMELA W. FERRARI, LEROY BAILEY,
Bureau of the Census ............... 264
A Factorial Experiment on the Responses of
Professional Nurses to a National Mail Survey - RICHARD A. KULKA, STEWART
J. SHIREY, R. PAUL WORE, NELSON WOODBURY, Research Triangle Institute ...............
270
Discussion - WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK, University
of North Carolina ............... 276
Using Clustering Algorithms to Stratify Primary
Sampling Units - D.R. JUDKINS, R.P. SINGE, Bureau of the Census ...............
279
Modification of Friedmen-Rubin' s Clustering
Algorithm for Use in Stratified PPS Sampling - DONNA KOSTANICH, DAVID
JUDKINS, RAJENDRA SINGE, MINDI SCHAUT'Z, Bureau of the Census ...............
285
Selection of Stratifiers for the National Crime
Survey Redesign - CHARLES H. ALEXANDER, EDWARD L. KOBILARCIK, Bureau of
the Census ............... 291
Efforts to Improve the Reliability of Minority
Estimates in the Redesign of the Current Population Survey - DEBORAH LORAH,
RAJENDRA SINGE, ROBERT TEGELS, Bureau of the Census ............... 297
Comparison of an Alternative Estimator to
the Current Composite Estimator in CPS - ELIZABETH T. HUANG, LAWRENCE
B. ERNST, Bureau of the Census ............... 303
Discussion - LESLIE KISH, University of
Michigan ............... 309
Discussion - RALPH FOLSOM, Research Triangle
Institute ............... 311
A General Composite Estimator - STEPHEN
M. WOODRUFF, Bureau of Labor Statistics ............... 313
The Effect of a Large Change on Two Ratio
Regression Estimators - GEORGE KA'ITAKKUZHY, Health Care Financing Administration
............... 317
Multisample Jacknife Statistics - IBRAHIM
A. AHMAD, University of Petroleum and Minerals ............... 318
Reliability and Validity of the Data and Measures
from Two National Surveys of Adolescent Drinking - J. VALLEY RACHAL, ROBERT
L. HUBBARD, ELIZABETH R. CAVANAUGH, Research Triangle Institute ...............
323
Validity of Self Reports of Illegal Activities
and Arrests by Drug Treatment Clients - ROBERT HUBBARD, JAMES COLLINS,
MARGARET ALLISON, ELIZABETH CAVANAUGH, J. VALLEY RACHAL, Research Triangle
Institute ............... 329
Factors Influencing Rating Scale Responses:
A Procedure for Partitioning Redundancy - MOHAMMAD H. SABERTEHRANI, Eastern
Michigan University; ROBERT A. PETERSON, University of Texas, Austin ...............
335
Survey Response Errors for Sensitive Topics
- KENT H. MARQUIS, M. SUSAN MARQUIS, J. MICHAEL POLICH, Rand Corporation ...............
339
Countering Estimation Bias Due to Response
Errors: A Simulation Example - NAIHUA DUAN, KENT H. MARQUIS, M. SUSAN
MARQUIS, Rand Corporation ............... 342
An Experiment to Measure the Effects of Respondent
Rules on Health Survey Responses - ROBERT M. GROVES, NANCY A. MATHIOWETZ,
University of Michigan ............... 346
Discussion - MARY GRACE KOVAR, National
Center for Health Statistics ............... 352
Accounting for Differences in Aggregate Estimates
and Size Distributions of Farm Proprietors' Income - EDWARD C. BUDD, Pennsylvania
State University and Bureau of Economic Analysis; ROBERT YUSKAVAGE, Bureau
of Economic Analysis ............... 354
Estimating In-Kind Income Using the CPS: Survey
Versus Pure Microsimulation Approaches - TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING, Bureau of
the Census ............... 360
Examination of Alternative Income Distribution
Measures Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation Panel Data
- CONSTANCE F. CITRO, MARILYN E. MANSER, Mathematica Policy Research ...............
366
The Measurement of Nonfarm Self-Employment
Income: The 1979 ISDP Research Panel - THOMAS CAMERON WHITEMAN, Health
and Human Services ............... 372
An Assessment of the Quality of Survey Reports
of Income from the Aid to families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program
- KAREN GOUDREAU, HOWARD OBERHEU, DENTON VAUGHAN, Social Security Administration
............... 377
Discussion - ROBERT B. PEARL, University
of Illinois ............... 383
A New Sampling Plan for the Carolina Health
Survey - JAN-JAN LAM, MARTIN C. WEINRICH, University of South Carolina
............... 385
A Survey to Estimate the Value of the Equipment
Inventory of a Large Institution - MICHAEL FRIEDMAN, STEPHEN CASEY, Rutgers
University ............... 387
Surveys of Seasonal Residents in Florida
- WEN-FU P. SHIH, University of Florida ............... 391
Sampling Design for Marine Recreational Fishing
Survey: An Example of a Complemented Survey - DHIRENDRA N. GHOSH, Washington,
DC ............... 394
Response Error Research Issues in Health Surveys
- D. G. HORVITZ, Research Triangle Institute ............... 397
The Equivalence of Generalized Double Sampling
Regression Estimators, Weight Adjustments, and Randomized Hot Deck Imputations
- RALPH FOLSOM, Jr., Research Triangle Institute ............... 400
Weighted Hot-Deck Imputation of Medical Expenditures
Based on a Record Check Subsample - RICK L. WILLIAMS, RALPH E. FOLSOM,
Jr., Research Triangle Institute ............... 406
An Evaluation of Weighted Hot Deck Imputation
for Unreported Health Care Visits - BRENDA G. COX, RALPH E. FOLSOM, Jr.,
Research Triangle Institute ............... 412
An Automated Procedure for Matching Record
Check and Household-Reported Health Care Data - PHILIP C. COOLEY, BRENDA
G. COX, Research Triangle Institute ............... 418
Discussion - GORDON SCOTT BONHAM, National
Center for Health Statistics ............... 424
An Investigation of Response in a Telephone
Survey - JAMES T. MASSEY, PEGGY R. BARKER, SUE HSIUNG, National Center
for Health Statistics ............... 426
A Study of Dual Frame Estimators for the National
Health Interview Survey - ROBERT J. CASADY, CECELIA B. SNOWDEN, MONROE
G. SIRKEN, National Center for Health Statistics ............... 444
Toward the Design of an Optimal Telephone Sample
- J. BURKE, D. MORGANSTIEN, S. SCHWARTZ, Westat, Inc. ............... 448
Discussion - WILLIAM L. NICHOLS, II, Bureau
of the Census ............... 454
Statistics of Income: An Overview - ROBERT
A. WILSON, JOHN DiPAOLO, Internal Revenue Service ............... 457
Individual Statistics of Income: Advancing
the Closeout Date - JIM DUMAIS, RAY SHADID, Internal Revenue Service ...............
464
Using Business Master File Data for Statistics
of Income Purposes - WILLIAM T. POWELL, JOEL R. STUBBS, Intermal Revenue
Service ............... 471
The SOI Quality Control Program - THOMAS
M. DURKIN, OTTO SCHWARTZ, Internal Revenue Service ............... 478
The Development of Automatic Calculation of
the Coefficient of Variation Within the Generalized Tabulation System
- VICTOR A. BAXTER, Internal Revenue Service ............... 484
Discussion - NEIL BARCLAY, Revenue Canada
Taxation ............... 490
Discussion - PETER DAVIS, Senate Budget
Committee ............... 492
Nonsampling Errors in an Agriculture Survey
- DAVID FAULKENBERRY, Oregon State University, ROBEST D. TORTORA, Department
of Agriculture ............... 493
Use of Network Sampling in an Agricultural
Survey - MICHAEL A. STEINER, Department of Agriculture ...............
496
Prediction of County Crop Areas Using Survey
and Satellite Data - GEORGE E. BATTESE, University of New England; WAYNE
A. FULLER, Iowa State University ............... 500
Stratification of a Remotely Sensed Area Sampling
Frame - RON FECSO, Department of Agriculture ............... 506
Evaluation of the USDA Large Area Crop Estimation
Procedure Using Alternative Clustering and Classification Techniques -
M.L. AMIS, R.K. LENNININGTON, M.V. MARTIN, W.G. McGUIRE, S.S. SHEN, Lockheed
Engineering and Management Services Company, Inc. ............... 509
Discussion - RAJ S. CHHIKARA, Old Dominion
University ............... 515
Toward a National Retirement Income Policy:
An Alternative Perspective - SYLVESTER J. SCHIEBER, Employee Benefit Research
Institute ............... 517
Evaluating a National Pension Plan Data Base
While Testing for Economies of Scale - EMILY S. ANDREWS, Social Security
Administration; OLIVIA S. MITCHELL, Cornell University ............... 523
Use of the Chi-Square Statistic to Set Whitteker-Henderson
Smoothing Coefficients - LEE GIESECKE, Defense Manpower Data Center ...............
527
Discussion - DANIEL E. SMITH, National
Bureau of Economic Research ............... 531
Small Business Data Base: Progress and Potential
- BRUCE A. KIRCHHOFF, DAVID A. HIRSCHBERG, Small Business Administration
............... 533
Issues in Developing a Microdata Base for Small
Business Research - VITO NATRELLA, Arlington, Virginia ...............
538
Associating Establishments into Enterprises
for a Microdata File of the United States Business Population - CATHERINE
ARMINGTON, MARJORIE ODLE, Brookings Institution ............... 541
Recent Trends in the Distribution
of Employment by Business Size and Industry - BRUCE D. PHILLIPS, Small
Business Administration ............... 547
Discussion - NORMAN FRUMKIN, Office of
Management and Budget ............... 554
Estimation Equations for the
Number of Duplicate HU Listings in the 1980 Census, Based on a Sample of ED
Clusters - DAVID W. CHAPMAN, Bureau of the Census ............... 556
The Difference Between the Inverses
of the Harmonic and Arthimetic Means - MONROE G. SIRKEN, National Center
for Health Statistics ............... 562
A Note on a Further Generalization
of the Ehrenfest Urn Model - V.R.R. UPPULURI, TOMMY WRIGHT, Union Carbide
Corporation ............... 564
Non-Additive Relations in Organizational
Survey Data - JEAN B. LAPOINTE, ALAN S. DAVENPORT, University of Michigan;
MAUREEN SIE, Aerospace Corporation ............... 569
Interval Estimation in Unequal
Probability Sampling - S .H. BIYANI, East Carolina University; C.K. MIDHA,
University of Florida ............... 574
The Development of Social Data
from Administrative Records: The Canadian Experience - DOUGLAS NORRIS,
JOHN LEYES, NELSON KOPUSTAS, Statistics Canada ............... 576
Estimating the Value of Incremental
Depreciation Deductions and Tax Rate Reductions - JOSEPH J. CORDES, George
Washington University; STEVEN M. SHEFFRIN, University of California, Davis,
and Office of Tax Analysis ............... 587
Social Security Data Files as
a Resource for Health Research - FAYE AZIZ, HARRIET ORCEIIT, LINDA DelBENE,
Social Security Administration ............... 591
Industrial Directory —
Status and Direction - MICHAEL G. FARRELL, JOHN M. SULLIVAN, Bureau of
the Census ............... 595
The Effect of Fisher's z-Transformation
on Confidence Intervals for the Correlation Coefficient - MARY H. MULRY,
KIRK M. WOLTER, Bureau of the Census ............... 601
Statistical Properties of Linear
Survey Estimators with Integer Valued Random Variable Weights - DAVID
D. CHAPMAN, Bureau of the Census ............... 607
Robust Model-Based Inference
for a Finite Population Mean from Unequally Weighted Samples - RODERICK
J.A. LI'ITLE, Datametrics Research, Inc. ............... 613
Regression Analysis Under Differential
Non-Response - GAD NATHAN, Hebrew University, Jerusalem ...............
618
Nonresponse in Complex Multiphase
Surveys - J.H. DREW, GTE Laboratories Inc.; W.A. FULLER, Iowa State University
............... 623
Using Sample Survey Weights in Multiple Regression
Analyses of Stratified Samples - WILLIAM H. DuMOUCHEL, Massachusetts Institute
of Technology; GREG J. DUNCAN, University of Michigan ............... 629
A Logic of Inference in Sample Survey Practice
- B.V. SHAH, Research Triangle Institute ............... 638
Nonprofit Organizations in America: An Examination
of Information Return Filings with IRS - JOHN P. SULLIVAN, KEITH GILMOUR,
Internal Revenue Service ............... 645
Private Foundations, Federal Tax Law, and
Philanthropic Activity: An IRS Perspective - THOMAS B. PETSKA, DANIEL
SKELLY, Internal Revenue Service ............... 651
Discussion - GABRIEL RUDNEY, Yale University
............... 657
1977 Employee Benefit Plan Data—Form 5500
Series - NICHOLAS H. GREENIA, DANIEL A. ROSA, Internal Revenue Service
............... 658
The Veterans Administration Pension System
- ROBERT S. KLEAR, RONALD HENKE, Veterans Administration ............... 664
Salary Survey of Mathematicians and Statisticians
- GLENN BEATTY, Battelle, Columbus Laboratories ............... 667
The Usefulness of Proxy Reporting in an Economic
Survey of Physicians - MARC L. BERK, STEVEN H. COHEN, SAMUEL M. MEYERS,
National Center for Health Statistics Research ............... 671
Minimum Sample Sizes for Cochran's Test
- PATRICIA P. RAMSEY, Fordham University; PHILIP H. RAMSEY, City University
of New York, Queens College ............... 686
Small Area Estimating - JOHN H. MORAWETZ,
McGraw-Hill Information Systens Company ............... 689
Synthetic Estimation Based on Incomplete Information
- THOMAS M. GERIG, North Carolina State University; PATRICK H.A. MILLER, Texas
Christian University ............... 689
Small Area Estimates Based on Concurrent Measures
Versus Regression Estimates: The Case of the One Family House Construction
- JONAH OTELSBERG, York University ............... 690
When Robust Estimation is Not an Obvious Answer:
The Case of the Synthetic Estimator Versus Alternatives for Small Ones
- CARL ERIK SARNDAL, University of Montreal ............... 710
______________
* These papers are being placed into this Proceedings volume because the
Bureau of the Census, which fonterly published them as a separate rionograph,
will no longer do so.